Races · house · 2024 · Ohio

house · open seat

Ohio house

← Ohio house Ohio house →

Safe DD +48.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Beatty (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Joyce Beatty99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +48.4
80% CID+36.4 → D+60.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +48.4 · 80% CI D+36.4 → D+60.4
Actual result D+41.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+21) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+48.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+36.4 (10th pctile) to D+60.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +48.4

80% CI: D +36.4 → D +60.4 · win prob 99%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+41.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

DJoyce Beatty0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-24

Joyce BeattyH2OH03125 ↗

Receipts

$1.8M

Disburse

$1.3M

Cash on hand

$2.7M

Debts

$2.5K

Top industries

Securities & investment$13.4K

Education$13.2K

Top contributors

ALIGNMENT GOVERNMENT STRATEGIES$8.0K

APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$6.8K

LIMITED BRANDS$6.6K

APOLLO GLOBAL$6.6K

CAROLYN ROWAN COLLECTION LLC$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$2.6K

D side

$2.6K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

DMFI PAC

For / against split

For Beatty $2.6K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
DMFI PAC	D	$2.6K	100%	for Joyce Beatty
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Joyce Beatty

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

CNalysis

Safe D

Mar 11

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Mar 4

Elections Daily

Safe D

Feb 4

Inside Elections

Safe D

Feb 29

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-24

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks