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Races · house · 2024 · Ohio
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Samantha Meadows vs Niraj Antani

← Ohio houseOhio house →
Safe RR +55.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Meadows (D)
99% Antani (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +55.0 · 80% CI R+67.0 → R+43.0
Actual result David Taylor +3.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+24) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+55.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+67.0 (10th pctile) to R+43.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +55.0
80% CI: R +67.0 → R +43.0 · win prob 1%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultDavid Taylor +3.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RNiraj Antani0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSamantha Meadows0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-01
Niraj AntaniH4OH02172 ↗
Receipts
$756.5K
Disburse
$756.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$149.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
KETTERING HEALTH$11.5K
PREMIER HEALTH$10.8K
MERCY HEALTH$7.3K
AMJAY CORP$6.6K
SOIN$6.6K
Samantha MeadowsH2OH02127 ↗
Receipts
$160.3K
Disburse
$160.3K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$3.3K
Govt employees$1.1K
Education$1.0K
TV / movies / music$1.0K
Top contributors
PORTSMOUTH MISSION ALLIANCE$3.6K
HIGHLAND COUNTY COMMUNITY ACTION$3.5K
FARMER$3.3K
DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS$1.1K
UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$29.9K
D side
$1.5K · 5%
R side
$28.4K · 95%
Top spender
DEFEND THE AMERICAN…
For / against split
For Meadows $1.5K
For Antani $28.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DEFEND THE AMERICAN DREAM PACR$28.4K95%for Niraj Antani
STAND UP FOR OHIO (OHIO ORGANIZING CAMPAIGN)D$1.5K5%for Samantha Meadows

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Mar 11
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Mar 4
Elections Daily
Safe R
Feb 4
Inside Elections
Safe R
Feb 29
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-01
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks