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Races · house · 2024 · Ohio
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Emilia Sykes vs Chris Banweg

← Ohio houseOhio house →
Lean DD +3.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
71% Sykes (D)
29% Banweg (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +3.4 · 80% CI R+8.6 → D+15.4
Actual result D+2.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 71% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.6 (10th pctile) to D+15.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 71% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.4
80% CI: R +8.6 → D +15.4 · win prob 71%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+2.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DEmilia Sykes0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RChris Banweg0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-08
Emilia SykesH2OH13264 ↗
Receipts
$5.3M
Disburse
$5.3M
Cash on hand
$122.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$14.3K
Internet$9.4K
Top contributors
CHARLES AND LYNN SCHUSTERMAN FAMILY PH$13.2K
WALNUT RIDGE$10.9K
INSIGHT PARTNERS$9.9K
GOOGLE LLC$9.4K
TURTLE PLASTICS$7.6K
Chris BanwegH4OH13146 ↗
Receipts
$310.2K
Disburse
$310.2K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$18.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
GROUP INTEREST ENTERPRISE MEDIA INC$6.6K
TRS$6.6K
BLADE-TECH INDUSTRIES$6.6K
THE NRP GROUP$6.6K
FLEET RESPONSE$6.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$7.2M
D side
$3.2M · 44%
R side
$4.0M · 56%
Top spender
CONGRESSIONAL LEADE…
For / against split
For Sykes $3.2M
Against Sykes $4.0M
For Banweg $47.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$3.5M49%against Emilia Sykes
HMPD$900.0K13%for Emilia Sykes
NEW AMERICAN JOBS FUNDD$829.8K12%for Emilia Sykes
DCCCD$505.2K7%for Emilia Sykes
NRCCR$312.5K4%against Emilia Sykes
AMERICAN JOBS AND GROWTH PACR$43.8K1%for Chris Banweg
WORKING FOR AMERICA INC.R$3.5K0%for Chris Banweg

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D5
CNalysis
Lean D
Mar 11
Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 31
Elections Daily
Lean D
Feb 4
Inside Elections
Lean D
Oct 17
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Oct 23

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks