Races · house · 2024 · Ohio

house · open seat

Jerrad Christian vs Troy Balderson

← Ohio house Ohio house →

Safe RR +42.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Christian (D)
99% Balderson (R)
Win probability
Jerrad Christian1% (D)
Troy Balderson99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +42.8
80% CIR+54.8 → R+30.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +42.8 · 80% CI R+54.8 → R+30.8
Actual result R+37.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+42.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+54.8 (10th pctile) to R+30.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +42.8

80% CI: R +54.8 → R +30.8 · win prob 1%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+37.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RTroy Balderson0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DJerrad Christian0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-31

Troy BaldersonH8OH12180 ↗

Receipts

$2.1M

Disburse

$1.5M

Cash on hand

$1.0M

Debts

Top industries

Oil & gas$18.9K

Top contributors

ARIEL CORPORATION$17.5K

KENMORE COMPANIES$15.6K

KIMBLE COMPANIES$15.4K

ZEMBA BROS, INC$13.2K

BEST EFFORT$10.9K

Jerrad ChristianH4OH12080 ↗

Receipts

$342.0K

Disburse

$338.2K

Cash on hand

$3.8K

Debts

Top industries

Education$3.0K

Top contributors

STELLAR-1 COMMUNICATIONS$3.5K

PEABODY COLLGE$3.0K

OHIO UNIVERSITY$1.8K

I AM BOUNDLESS$1.6K

REVLOCAL$1.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$9.6K

D side

$1.5K · 16%

R side

$8.1K · 84%

Top spender

NATIONAL RIGHT TO L…

For / against split

For Christian $1.5K

For Balderson $8.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	R	$4.6K	48%	for Troy Balderson
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	R	$3.5K	36%	for Troy Balderson
STAND UP FOR OHIO (OHIO ORGANIZING CAMPAIGN)	D	$1.5K	16%	for Jerrad Christian

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

CNalysis

Safe R

Mar 11

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Mar 4

Elections Daily

Safe R

Feb 4

Inside Elections

Safe R

Feb 29

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Feb 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-31

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks