Races · house · 2024 · Ohio

house · open seat

Ohio house

← Ohio house Ohio house →

Safe DD +67.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Brown (D)
1% (R)
Win probability
Shontel Brown99% (D)
Republican1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +67.0
80% CID+55.0 → D+79.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +67.0 · 80% CI D+55.0 → D+79.0
Actual result D+58.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+28) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+67.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+55.0 (10th pctile) to D+79.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +67.0

80% CI: D +55.0 → D +79.0 · win prob 99%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+58.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DShontel Brown0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

ISean Freeman0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-01

Shontel BrownH2OH11169 ↗

Receipts

$1.4M

Disburse

$926.3K

Cash on hand

$855.8K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$6.6K

Top contributors

MINUTEMEN FAMILY OF COMPANIES$13.2K

CARNEGIE CORPORATION$6.6K

TRANSDIGM$6.6K

THE NRP GROUP$6.6K

GREYLOCK$6.6K

Sean FreemanOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$22.6K

Disburse

$22.6K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$7.2K

D side

$7.2K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

DMFI PAC

For / against split

For Brown $7.2K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
DMFI PAC	D	$5.7K	79%	for Shontel Brown
STAND UP FOR OHIO (OHIO ORGANIZING CAMPAIGN)	D	$1.5K	21%	for Shontel Brown
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Shontel Brown

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

CNalysis

Safe D

Mar 11

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Mar 4

Elections Daily

Safe D

Feb 4

Inside Elections

Safe D

Feb 29

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 15, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-01

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks