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Races · house · 2024 · Ohio
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Amy Cox vs Mike Turner

← Ohio houseOhio house →
Safe RR +27.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Cox (D)
99% Turner (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +27.0 · 80% CI R+39.0 → R+15.0
Actual result R+18.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+27.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+39.0 (10th pctile) to R+15.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +27.0
80% CI: R +39.0 → R +15.0 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+18.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMike Turner0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DAmy Cox0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IMichael Harbaugh0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-31
Mike TurnerH2OH03067 ↗
Receipts
$1.3M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$430.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$11.0K
Top contributors
ADAMS ROBINSON ENTERPRISES$26.4K
SUGARCREEK PACKING$19.8K
GOSIGER INC$13.2K
LEIDOS$12.8K
SAWDEY SOLUTION SERVICES$11.6K
Amy CoxH4OH10183 ↗
Receipts
$205.1K
Disburse
$205.1K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$3.5K
Top contributors
VENTURE PHILANTHROPY PARTNERS$3.3K
CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIVERSITY$2.8K
LINDA SMITH$750
NVCOMMERCIAL$550
TELSWITCH INC.$500
Michael HarbaughOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$7.2K
Disburse
$7.0K
Cash on hand
$254.16
Debts
$5.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$6.1K
D side
$1.5K · 25%
R side
$4.6K · 75%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIGHT TO L…
For / against split
For Cox $1.5K
For Turner $4.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$4.6K75%for Mike Turner
STAND UP FOR OHIO (OHIO ORGANIZING CAMPAIGN)D$1.5K25%for Amy Cox

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Mar 11
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Mar 4
Elections Daily
Safe R
Feb 4
Inside Elections
Safe R
Feb 29
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-31
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks