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Races · house · 2024 · Ohio
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house · open seat

Greg Landsman vs Orlando Sonza

← New York houseOhio house →
Likely DD +7.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
90% Landsman (D)
10% Sonza (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +7.8 · 80% CI R+4.2 → D+19.8
Actual result D+9.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 90% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.2 (10th pctile) to D+19.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +7.8
80% CI: R +4.2 → D +19.8 · win prob 90%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+9.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DGreg Landsman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
ROrlando Sonza0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-08
Orlando SonzaH4OH01109 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Greg LandsmanH2OH01194 ↗
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$3.6M
Cash on hand
$180.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Real estate$29.7K
Education$22.1K
Securities & investment$10.6K
Health professionals$8.1K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI$22.1K
CHAVEZ PROPERTIES LLC$19.8K
KATZ TELLER$17.7K
THE COUNSELING SOURCE INC$13.2K
REMINGTON ROAD GROUP$10.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.2M
D side
$229.8K · 20%
R side
$945.7K · 80%
Top spender
AMERICANS FOR PROSP…
For / against split
For Landsman $229.8K
Against Landsman $58.1K
For Sonza $887.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$930.1K79%for Orlando Sonza
COMMUNITY CHANGE VOTERSD$101.5K9%for Greg Landsman
OHIO CITIZEN ACTIOND$51.3K4%for Greg Landsman
WORKING AMERICAD$34.5K3%for Greg Landsman
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$33.1K3%for Greg Landsman
FREEDOM FOR ALL PACR$11.0K1%for Orlando Sonza
NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUNDR$4.6K0%for Orlando Sonza

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D3
CNalysis
Safe D
Mar 11
Cook Political Report
Likely D
Mar 4
Elections Daily
Likely D
Feb 4
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Feb 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-08
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks