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Races · house · 2024 · New York
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Tom Suozzi vs Mike LiPetri

← New York houseNew York house →
Likely RR +10.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
4% Suozzi (D)
96% LiPetri (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +10.4 · 80% CI R+22.4 → D+1.6
Actual result D+6.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 96% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+10.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+22.4 (10th pctile) to D+1.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 96% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +10.4
80% CI: R +22.4 → D +1.6 · win prob 4%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+6.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DTom Suozzi0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike LiPetri0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-01
Tom SuozziH6NY03247 ↗
Receipts
$9.6M
Disburse
$7.7M
Cash on hand
$2.0M
Debts
$379.2
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$20.8K
Securities & investment$19.8K
Pharma / health products$19.8K
Insurance$16.5K
Top contributors
PAUL WEISS RIFKIND WHARTON & GARRISON$100.2K
GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL$30.2K
TEITLER & TEITLER LLP$20.8K
GEHRY PARTNERS$19.8K
BAIN CAPITAL$19.8K
Mike LiPetriH0NY02267 ↗
Receipts
$970.5K
Disburse
$960.1K
Cash on hand
$15.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$6.6K
Securities & investment$6.6K
Top contributors
DILIGENT$17.5K
REGAL CHB$7.0K
NEW YORK$6.8K
INVESTMENTS LIMITED$6.6K
JANE STREET$6.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$4.7M
D side
$4.1M · 88%
R side
$557.7K · 12%
Top spender
COMMON SENSE NEW YORK
For / against split
For Suozzi $4.1M
Against LiPetri $1.2K
Against Suozzi $557.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
COMMON SENSE NEW YORKD$2.3M49%for Tom Suozzi
NY COMMON GROUNDD$1.0M22%for Tom Suozzi
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$548.5K12%against Tom Suozzi
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$427.0K9%for Tom Suozzi
WORKING AMERICAD$174.0K4%for Tom Suozzi
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$675.420%against Mike LiPetri
NYIC POLITICAL ACTION FUNDD$519.50%against Mike LiPetri

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D4
CNalysis
Likely D
Feb 29
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Feb 28
Elections Daily
Likely D
Feb 28
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Feb 27

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-01
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks