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Races · house · 2024 · New York
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

David Wagenhauser vs Mario Fratto

← New York houseNew York house →
Safe RR +32.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Wagenhauser (D)
99% Fratto (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +32.8 · 80% CI R+44.8 → R+20.8
Actual result R+23.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+11) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+32.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+44.8 (10th pctile) to R+20.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +32.8
80% CI: R +44.8 → R +20.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+23.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMario Fratto0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDavid Wagenhauser0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-07
David WagenhauserH4NY24131 ↗
Receipts
$97.3K
Disburse
$95.4K
Cash on hand
$1.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$750
Pharma / health products$250
Top contributors
SANZARU GAMES INC$1.0K
ONTARIO COUNTY$750
AMERICAN EXPRESS$500
CORNELL UNIVERSITY$500
GENEVA CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT$250
Mario FrattoOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$560.0K
Disburse
$563.1K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Insurance$1.5K
Real estate$1.0K
Top contributors
GENEVA GRANITE$3.3K
MASSA CONSTRUCTON$3.3K
HTI VISIONS LLC$3.3K
FRATTO CURBING, LLC.$2.5K
BANK STREET$2.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.5K
D side
$1.5K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
RURAL FREEDOM NETWORK
For / against split
For Wagenhauser $1.3K
Against Tenney $210.87
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
RURAL FREEDOM NETWORKD$1.3K86%for David Wagenhauser

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 30
Elections Daily
Safe R
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe R
Nov 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-07
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks