Races · house · 2024 · New York
house · open seat
Paula Collins vs Elise Stefanik
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+10) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+28.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+40.9 (10th pctile) to R+16.9 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +28.9
80% CI: R +40.9 → R +16.9 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+21.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRElise Stefanik0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DPaula Collins0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-03Elise StefanikH4NY21079 ↗
Receipts
$15.5M
Disburse
$7.6M
Cash on hand
$8.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$10.9K
Securities & investment · $10.9K
- Apollo Management · $10.9K
Individuals $10.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$41.6K
BEST EFFORT USED$25.2K
FIT FOR LIFE$16.5K
HOUSING INC.$13.2K
CASSIDY HOLDINGS$13.2K
Paula Collins
Receipts
$149.2K
Disburse
$54.3K
Cash on hand
$95.4K
Debts
$11.1K
Top industries
Computers / electronics$1.2K
Computers / electronics · $1.2K
- Qualcomm · $667
- Microsoft · $500
Individuals $1.2K · PACs $0
Education$850
Education · $850
- Healthy Schools Network · $500
- Mit · $350
Individuals $850 · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$500
Lawyers / law firms · $500
- Reachout of St. Lawrence County, INC. · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Top contributors
MARVEL$1.0K
FDA$1.0K
QUALCOMM$667
GOLUB CORPORATION$500
MICROSOFT$500
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$681.37
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$681.37 · 100%
Top spender
HUNTER ACTION FUND …
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF) super pac · boosts R
| R | $681.37 | 100% | for Elise Stefanik |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R5
Safe R · 5 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 30
- Elections Daily · Sep 6
- Inside Elections · Nov 30
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Feb 22
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-03
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks