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Races · house · 2024 · New York
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Josh Riley vs Marc Molinaro

Tossup polls· 0 polls · 0 markets
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

CITATIONS · tossup

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMarc Molinaro0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJosh Riley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-06
Marc MolinaroH2NY19127 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
No industry data.
No contributor data.
Josh RileyH8NY22177 ↗
Receipts
$9.8M
Disburse
$9.8M
Cash on hand
$68.3K
Debts
$4.0K
Lawyers / law firms$117.1K
Education$54.7K
Computers / electronics$15.4K
BOIES SCHILLER FLEXNER LLP$64.9K
CORNELL UNIVERSITY$54.7K
JENNER & BLOCK LLP$26.2K
KING & SPALDING, LLP$26.0K
PAUL WEISS$23.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$46.2M
D side
$38.2M · 83%
R side
$8.0M · 17%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Riley $6.3M
Against Molinaro $31.9M
Against Riley $3.6M
For Molinaro $4.4M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$27.4M59%against Marc Molinaro
BATTLEGROUND NEW YORKD$4.7M10%for Josh Riley
DCCCD$3.9M9%against Marc Molinaro
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS CONGRESSIONAL FUNDR$2.3M5%for Marc Molinaro
NRCCR$1.4M3%against Josh Riley
AMERICA PACR$1.1M2%for Marc Molinaro
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$1.0M2%against Josh Riley
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$750.0K2%against Marc Molinaro
THE GOVERNING MAJORITY FUNDR$383.1K1%against Josh Riley

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tilt D2
Tossup1
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Nov 30
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 5, 2026tossuppvi
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-06
Endorsementsnothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks