Races · house · 2024 · NY
house · open seat

Josh Riley vs Marc Molinaro

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Tossup — · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup

tossup

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-06
Total IE spending
$82.4M
For candidates
$15.0M
Against candidates
$67.4M
Latest filing: 12/6/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Marcus Molinaro (R)
$4.4M for · $31.9M against
Cash on hand
$52K
Total raised (cycle)
$5.6M
Total spent
$5.6M
Debts
$60K
Source: FEC
Marc Molinaro (R)
$4.4M for · $31.9M against
Josh Riley (D)
$6.3M for · $3.6M against
Cash on hand
$68K
Total raised (cycle)
$9.8M
Total spent
$9.8M
Debts
$4K
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi