Races · house · 2024 · NY
house · open seat
Pat Ryan vs Alison Esposito
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Tilt D
tilt-d
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-20Total IE spending
$15.5M
For candidates
$4.3M
Against candidates
$11.3M
Latest filing: 11/20/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Alison Esposito (R)
$3.0M for ·
$10.0M against
Cash on hand
$14K
Total raised (cycle)
$2.4M
Total spent
$2.4M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $4.8M against HMP Super PAC
- $3.5M against VOTEVETS Super PAC
- $1.3M for CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND Super PAC
- $1.3M for WFW ACTION FUND, INC. Super PAC
- $1.0M against EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND) Super PAC
Pat Ryan (D)
$1.3M for ·
$1.2M against
Cash on hand
$167K
Total raised (cycle)
$8.1M
Total spent
$8.0M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $1.0M against CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND Super PAC
- $682K for NY COMMON GROUND Super PAC
- $301K for BATTLEGROUND NEW YORK Super PAC
- $221K for NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE PAC
- $153K against WFW ACTION FUND, INC. Super PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Tilt D via pvi