Races · house · 2024 · NY
house · open seat
Public Policy Polling vs Mike Lawler
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Tossup
tossup
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-20Total IE spending
$52.4M
For candidates
$13.1M
Against candidates
$39.3M
Latest filing: 11/20/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Mondaire Jones (D)
$11.6M for ·
$15.3M against
Cash on hand
$42K
Total raised (cycle)
$10.0M
Total spent
$10.0M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $14.5M against CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND Super PAC
- $6.8M for HMP Super PAC
- $3.4M for BATTLEGROUND NEW YORK Super PAC
- $1.2M for EQUALITY PAC PAC
- $643K against WE DECIDE Super PAC
Mike Lawler (R)
$1.4M for ·
$24.0M against
Cash on hand
$169K
Total raised (cycle)
$8.4M
Total spent
$8.3M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $18.8M against HMP Super PAC
- $3.7M against DCCC Party
- $925K for AMERICA PAC Super PAC
- $878K against LCV VICTORY FUND Super PAC
- $525K against BATTLEGROUND NEW YORK Super PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Tossup via pvi