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Races · house · 2024 · New York
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house · open seat

Mondaire Jones vs Mike Lawler

← New York houseNew York house →
Likely RR +9.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
6% Jones (D)
94% Lawler (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +9.4 · 80% CI R+21.4 → D+2.6
Actual result R+1.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 94% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.4 (10th pctile) to D+2.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.4
80% CI: R +21.4 → D +2.6 · win prob 6%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+1.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMike Lawler0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMondaire Jones0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-20
Mondaire JonesH0NY17174 ↗
Receipts
$10.0M
Disburse
$10.0M
Cash on hand
$42.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$62.9K
Internet$33.5K
Education$19.4K
Top contributors
DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL LLP$35.0K
GOOGLE$33.5K
PAUL WEISS$22.0K
PAUL WEISS RIFKIND WHARTON & GARRISON$20.4K
BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS$19.8K
Mike LawlerH2NY17162 ↗
Receipts
$8.4M
Disburse
$8.3M
Cash on hand
$169.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$62.4K
Education$14.7K
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$30.3K
CEO$20.3K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$16.5K
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$16.5K
PRESIDENT$15.6K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$52.4M
D side
$35.7M · 68%
R side
$16.7M · 32%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Jones $11.6M
Against Lawler $24.0M
Against Jones $15.3M
For Lawler $1.4M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$25.6M49%against Mike Lawler
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$14.5M28%against Mondaire Jones
BATTLEGROUND NEW YORKD$3.9M7%for Mondaire Jones
DCCCD$3.7M7%against Mike Lawler
EQUALITY PACD$1.2M2%for Mondaire Jones
AMERICA PACR$925.3K2%for Mike Lawler
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$878.2K2%against Mike Lawler
WE DECIDER$643.4K1%against Mondaire Jones

Editorial ratings · 7 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tossup1
Tilt R2
Lean R4
CNalysis
Tilt R
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 24
Decision Desk HQ
Tossup
Oct 8
Elections Daily
Lean R
Nov 3
538
Lean R
Oct 8
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Aug 28
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Sep 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-20
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks