Races · house · 2024 · New York

house · open seat

Jamaal Bowman vs Madeline Brame

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Safe DD +37.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Bowman (D)
1% Brame (R)
Win probability
Jamaal Bowman99% (D)
Madeline Brame1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +37.8
80% CID+25.8 → D+49.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +37.8 · 80% CI D+25.8 → D+49.8
Actual result D+43.2 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+18) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+37.8 with an 80% CI ranging from D+25.8 (10th pctile) to D+49.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +37.8

80% CI: D +25.8 → D +49.8 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+43.2
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DJamaal Bowman0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RMadeline Brame0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-16

Jamaal BowmanH0NY16143 ↗

Receipts

$6.1M

Disburse

$6.0M

Cash on hand

$79.9K

Debts

$13.3K

Top industries

Education$15.5K

Computers / electronics$14.7K

Top contributors

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY$15.5K

APPLE$14.7K

THE PRESSURE GROUT CO$11.6K

IEEC$11.4K

KIDNEY CARE CENTER$10.0K

Madeline BrameOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$12.1K

Disburse

$12.1K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

HALOCON$1.3K

CLEAR, LLC$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$18.7M

D side

$5.9M · 32%

R side

$12.8M · 68%

Top spender

FAIRSHAKE

For / against split

For Bowman $5.9M

Against Bowman $12.8M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
FAIRSHAKE	R	$12.5M	67%	against Jamaal Bowman
JUSTICE DEMOCRATS PAC	D	$3.9M	21%	for Jamaal Bowman
WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC	D	$1.3M	7%	for Jamaal Bowman
PROGRESSIVE VICTORY PAC	D	$372.9K	2%	for Jamaal Bowman

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 30

Elections Daily

Safe D

Sep 6

Inside Elections

Safe D

Nov 30

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-16

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks