NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · New York
</> Embed
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

John Avlon vs Nick LaLota

← Nevada houseNew York house →
Safe RR +19.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Avlon (D)
99% LaLota (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +19.2 · 80% CI R+31.2 → R+7.2
Actual result R+4.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+4) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.2 (10th pctile) to R+7.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.2
80% CI: R +31.2 → R +7.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+4.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RNick LaLota0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJohn Avlon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-04
John AvlonH4NY01204 ↗
Receipts
$5.3M
Disburse
$5.3M
Cash on hand
$304.26
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Nick LaLotaH2NY01190 ↗
Receipts
$4.3M
Disburse
$3.7M
Cash on hand
$676.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$37.4K
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$37.4K
VALMORE GP$26.4K
PRESIDENT$19.5K
CEO$16.1K
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES$13.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$8.6M
D side
$8.3M · 96%
R side
$333.2K · 4%
Top spender
WELCOMEPAC
For / against split
For Avlon $5.4M
Against LaLota $2.9M
For LaLota $333.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WELCOMEPACD$7.8M90%for John Avlon
EDF ACTION VOTESD$302.6K4%against Nick LaLota
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$255.7K3%for Nick LaLota
NY COMMON GROUNDD$136.0K2%for John Avlon
ELECT PRINCIPLED VETERANS FUND (EPV FUND)R$75.2K1%for Nick LaLota
COMMON SENSE NEW YORKD$44.0K1%for John Avlon
LABORERS BUILDING A BETTER NEW YORKD$15.0K0%for John Avlon
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$2.4K0%for Nick LaLota

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R1
Likely R4
CNalysis
Likely R
Feb 29
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Nov 30
Elections Daily
Likely R
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Likely R
Oct 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-04
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks