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Races · house · 2024 · Nevada
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Steven Horsford vs David Flippo

← Nevada houseNew York house →
Likely DD +7.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
90% Horsford (D)
10% Flippo (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +7.7 · 80% CI R+4.3 → D+19.7
Actual result D+8.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 90% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.3 (10th pctile) to D+19.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +7.7
80% CI: R +4.3 → D +19.7 · win prob 90%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+8.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DSteven Horsford0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDavid Flippo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
IGabriel Cornejo0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-09
Steven HorsfordH2NV04011 ↗
Receipts
$5.4M
Disburse
$5.5M
Cash on hand
$6.3K
Debts
$155.5K
Top industries
Securities & investment$121.6K
Top contributors
KKR & CO INC.$42.7K
BLACKSTONE$36.3K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$26.4K
ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ$19.8K
KKR$16.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.9M
D side
$2.8M · 97%
R side
$83.8K · 3%
Top spender
WORKERS VOTE
For / against split
For Horsford $2.4M
Against Lee $409.0K
Against Horsford $23.3K
For Lee $60.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WORKERS VOTED$1.1M40%for Steven Horsford
AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L ED$593.8K21%for Steven Horsford
ROLLING SEA ACTION FUNDD$149.5K5%for Steven Horsford
HMPD$119.6K4%for Steven Horsford
FOR OUR FUTURED$110.6K4%for Steven Horsford

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D5
CNalysis
Likely D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Feb 1
Decision Desk HQ
Likely D
May 31
Elections Daily
Likely D
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 17
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-09
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks