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Races · house · 2024 · Nevada
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Susie Lee vs Elizabeth Helgelien

← Nevada houseNevada house →
Lean DD +5.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
80% Lee (D)
20% Helgelien (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +5.0 · 80% CI R+7.0 → D+17.0
Actual result D+2.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 80% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.0 (10th pctile) to D+17.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 80% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.0
80% CI: R +7.0 → D +17.0 · win prob 80%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+2.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DSusie Lee0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RElizabeth Helgelien0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-02
Susie LeeH6NV04020 ↗
Receipts
$6.1M
Disburse
$5.6M
Cash on hand
$466.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Casinos / gambling$12.9K
Securities & investment$9.9K
Computers / electronics$9.5K
TV / movies / music$8.8K
Top contributors
EO SOLUTIONS$33.0K
WYNN RESORTS$12.9K
BERKSHIRE PARTNERS LLC$11.5K
ENGELSTAD FOUNDATION$9.9K
GREYLOCK PARTNERS$9.9K
Elizabeth HelgelienOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$300.8K
Disburse
$300.8K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$6.6K
Top contributors
INVESTMENTS LIMITED$6.6K
AUDAX GROUP$5.0K
WILLIAMS RANCH CO$5.0K
FOUR SEASONS PRODUCE$3.3K
VULCAN SPRINGS$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.7M
D side
$2.1M · 77%
R side
$630.1K · 23%
Top spender
EARN INTERNATIONAL …
For / against split
For Lee $814.0K
Against Johnson $1.3M
Against Lee $173.3K
For Johnson $456.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
EARN INTERNATIONAL UNION OF OPERATING ENGINEERSD$250.0K9%for Susie Lee
SHIELD PACD$175.0K6%for Susie Lee
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEED$150.0K5%for Susie Lee
ALL FOR OUR COUNTRYR$131.2K5%against Susie Lee
UNITED WE CAND$99.8K4%for Susie Lee

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D5
Lean D1
CNalysis
Likely D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Feb 1
Decision Desk HQ
Likely D
Oct 10
Elections Daily
Likely D
Oct 9
Inside Elections
Likely D
May 8
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-02
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks