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Races · house · 2024 · New Mexico
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Teresa Leger Fernandez vs Sharon Clahchischilliage

← New Mexico houseNevada house →
Likely DD +12.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
98% Fernandez (D)
2% Clahchischilliage (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +12.7 · 80% CI D+0.7 → D+24.7
Actual result D+12.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 98% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+12.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+0.7 (10th pctile) to D+24.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +12.7
80% CI: D +0.7 → D +24.7 · win prob 98%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+12.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DTeresa Leger Fernandez0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSharon Clahchischilliage0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-11
Teresa Leger FernandezH0NM03102 ↗
Receipts
$2.1M
Disburse
$1.7M
Cash on hand
$407.9K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$6.6K
Mining$6.6K
Top contributors
ALSOP LOUIE PARTNERS$13.2K
MMLC PA$9.6K
MARTINEZ HART & THOMPSON$6.8K
FIVE & DIME GENERAL STORES$6.8K
LAW OFFICES OF DOMINGO GARCIA$6.6K
Sharon ClahchischilliageOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$87.9K
Disburse
$87.4K
Cash on hand
$514.23
Debts
$3.2K
Top industries
Oil & gas$10.2K
Mining$3.0K
Lawyers / law firms$1.0K
Top contributors
OIL GAS EQUIPMENT$6.9K
JALEPENO CORP$3.3K
YATES PETROLEUM CORP$3.3K
JMJ LAND AND MINERALS COMPANY$3.0K
STRATA PRODUCTION COMPANY$3.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.8K
D side
$2.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
INTERNATIONAL ASSOC…
For / against split
For Fernandez $2.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF FIREFIGHTERS INTERESTED IN REGISTRATION AND EDUCATION PACD$2.3K79%for Teresa Leger Fernandez
PROGRESSNOW NEW MEXICOD$416.6715%for Teresa Leger Fernandez
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTIOND$161.696%for Teresa Leger Fernandez
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Teresa Leger Fernandez

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 15
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Feb 1
Elections Daily
Safe D
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe D
Mar 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-11
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks