Races · house · 2024 · New Mexico

house · open seat

Melanie Stansbury vs Steve Jones

← New Jersey house New Mexico house →

Safe DD +17.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Stansbury (D)
1% Jones (R)
Win probability
Melanie Stansbury99% (D)
Steve Jones1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +17.5
80% CID+5.5 → D+29.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +17.5 · 80% CI D+5.5 → D+29.5
Actual result D+12.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+7) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.5 (10th pctile) to D+29.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +17.5

80% CI: D +5.5 → D +29.5 · win prob 99%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+12.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DMelanie Stansbury0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RSteve Jones0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-18

Melanie StansburyH2NM01144 ↗

Receipts

$1.4M

Disburse

$1.2M

Cash on hand

$145.7K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$7.6K

Education$7.2K

Govt employees$5.4K

Top contributors

SINGLETON SCHREIBER LLP$7.6K

UNIVERSITY OF NEW MEXICO$7.2K

LAMB ENTERPRISE GROUP$6.6K

CALCULEX INC.$6.6K

THE RING GROUP$6.6K

Steve JonesOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$217.0K

Disburse

$191.4K

Cash on hand

$25.6K

Debts

$192.6K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

DANIELS MANUFACTURING$3.3K

ABO EMPIRE, LLC$500

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$101.9K

D side

$101.2K · 99%

R side

$700 · 1%

Top spender

PROJECT 218

For / against split

For Stansbury $101.2K

Against Stansbury $700

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
PROJECT 218	D	$101.1K	99%	for Melanie Stansbury
NEW MEXICO STRONG FUND	R	$700	1%	against Melanie Stansbury
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION	D	$55.01	0%	for Melanie Stansbury
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Melanie Stansbury

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Feb 1

Elections Daily

Safe D

Oct 9

Inside Elections

Safe D

Mar 9

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel

May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-18

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks