Races · house · 2024 · New Jersey

house · open seat

Mohamed Khairullah vs Hector Castillo

← New Jersey house New Jersey house →

Likely DD +10.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
97% Khairullah (D)
3% Castillo (R)
Win probability
Mohamed Khairullah97% (D)
Hector Castillo3% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +10.9
80% CIR+1.1 → D+22.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +10.9 · 80% CI R+1.1 → D+22.9
Actual result Nellie Pou +4.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 97% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+1.1 (10th pctile) to D+22.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +10.9

80% CI: R +1.1 → D +22.9 · win prob 97%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Nellie Pou +4.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DMohamed Khairullah0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RHector Castillo0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-09

Mohamed KhairullahOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$404.6K

Disburse

$394.5K

Cash on hand

$10.1K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

MT. SINAI$3.3K

MIH TRADING$3.3K

HACKENSACK MERIDIAN HC$3.3K

IMAM$3.3K

MODERN REALITY GROUP$3.3K

Hector CastilloOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$97.5K

Disburse

$97.4K

Cash on hand

$174.63

Debts

$88.5K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

IMPORT EXPORT SERVICE$3.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$162.2K

D side

$158.8K · 98%

R side

$3.3K · 2%

Top spender

—

For / against split

For Pascrell $158.8K

For Prempeh $3.3K

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Mar 20

Decision Desk HQ

Safe D

Oct 6

Elections Daily

Safe D

Sep 6

Inside Elections

Safe D

Sep 14

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Sep 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-09

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks