Races · house · 2024 · New Jersey
house · open seat
Sue Altman vs Thomas Kean Jr.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTossup · model 98% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+12.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+24.7 (10th pctile) to R+0.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 98% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +12.7
80% CI: R +24.7 → R +0.7 · win prob 2%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+5.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRThomas Kean Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DSue Altman0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-19Sue AltmanH4NJ07107 ↗
Receipts
$6.3M
Disburse
$6.2M
Cash on hand
$11.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$41.6K
Education · $41.6K
- Princeton University · $16.5K
- Mitsubishi Tanabe · $8.5K
- Rutgers University · $8.5K
- University of Pennsylvania · $8.2K
Individuals $41.6K · PACs $0
Internet$17.8K
Internet · $17.8K
- Google · $17.8K
Individuals $17.8K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$8.9K
Lawyers / law firms · $8.9K
- Paul Weiss · $10.9K
- Latham & Watkins LLP · $8.9K
Individuals $8.9K · PACs $0
Top contributors
GOOGLE$17.8K
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY$16.5K
THORLABS$13.2K
PAUL WEISS$10.9K
INSIGHT PARTNERS$9.9K
Thomas Kean Jr.H0NJ07261 ↗
Receipts
$6.0M
Disburse
$6.1M
Cash on hand
$48.3K
Debts
$7.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS,$13.2K
TC SERVICES$13.2K
ULINE$13.2K
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES$13.2K
VETERANS GUARDIAN$13.2K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$21.5M
D side
$11.4M · 53%
R side
$10.1M · 47%
Top spender
HMP
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMP super pac · boosts D
| D | $8.3M | 39% | against Thomas Kean Jr. |
| CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $8.0M | 37% | against Sue Altman |
| WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $1.7M | 8% | for Sue Altman |
| AMERICA PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.0M | 5% | against Sue Altman |
| LCV VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $600.0K | 3% | for Sue Altman |
| JERSEY REAL super pac · boosts R
| R | $292.1K | 1% | for Thomas Kean Jr. |
| NRDC ACTION VOTES super pac · boosts D
| D | $109.7K | 1% | against Thomas Kean Jr. |
| NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE pac · boosts R
| R | $103.7K | 0% | for Thomas Kean Jr. |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tilt R2
Tilt R · 2 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- Inside Elections · Sep 14
Lean R4
Lean R · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Oct 7
- Decision Desk HQ · Oct 6
- Elections Daily · Nov 3
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 25
CNalysis
Tilt RCook Political Report
Lean RDecision Desk HQ
Lean RElections Daily
Lean RInside Elections
Tilt RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks