Races · house · 2024 · New Jersey
house · open seat
Josh Gottheimer vs Mary Jo-Ann Guinchard
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt D · model 97% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+11.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+0.6 (10th pctile) to D+23.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 97% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +11.4
80% CI: R +0.6 → D +23.4 · win prob 97%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+11.3 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDJosh Gottheimer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMary Jo-Ann Guinchard0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-09Josh GottheimerH6NJ05171 ↗
Receipts
$10.2M
Disburse
$2.9M
Cash on hand
$20.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$280.2K
Securities & investment · $280.2K
- Blackstone · $116.7K
- Apollo Global Management · $71.5K
- Kkr & CO INC. · $50.6K
- Morgan Stanley · $21.4K
- Blackrock · $19.9K
Individuals $280.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$116.7K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$71.5K
KKR & CO INC.$50.6K
CENTERVIEW PARTNERS$25.0K
FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP$23.2K
Mary Jo-Ann GuinchardH4NJ05150 ↗
Receipts
$330.1K
Disburse
$328.2K
Cash on hand
$1.9K
Debts
$241.0K
Top industries
Pharma / health products$4.5K
Pharma / health products · $4.5K
- Pharmaspehere INC · $2.5K
- Emerson Pharmacy · $2.0K
Individuals $4.5K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$2.0K
TV / movies / music · $2.0K
- Bhhs Fox and Roach · $2.0K
Individuals $2.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SOMOS INNOVATION$3.3K
FIELD TRIP HEALTH$3.3K
PHARMASPEHERE INC$2.5K
BERGEN ANESTHESIA GROUP$2.5K
EMERSON PHARMACY$2.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$488.9K
D side
$485.6K · 99%
R side
$3.3K · 1%
Top spender
FAIRSHAKE
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAIRSHAKE super pac · boosts D
| D | $245.4K | 50% | for Josh Gottheimer |
| PROTECT PROGRESS super pac · boosts D
| D | $240.2K | 49% | for Josh Gottheimer |
| NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $3.3K | 1% | for Mary Jo-Ann Guinchard |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Josh Gottheimer |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- Cook Political Report · Mar 20
- Decision Desk HQ · Oct 6
- Elections Daily · Oct 9
- Inside Elections · Sep 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 25
CNalysis
Safe DCook Political Report
Safe DDecision Desk HQ
Safe DElections Daily
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-09
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks