Races · house · 2024 · New Jersey
house · open seat
Matthew Jenkins vs Chris Smith
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+14) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+40.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+52.0 (10th pctile) to R+28.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +40.0
80% CI: R +52.0 → R +28.0 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+35.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRChris Smith0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMatthew Jenkins0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-09Chris SmithH8NJ04014 ↗
Receipts
$838.7K
Disburse
$701.1K
Cash on hand
$364.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$6.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $6.5K
- Weiner Law Group · $6.5K
Individuals $6.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SAKER SHOP RITE$6.6K
ZAIS GROUP, LLC$6.6K
BLUFF POINT ASSOCIATES$6.6K
WINDMILL HEALTH PRODUCTS$6.6K
HILL & COMPANY$6.6K
Matthew Jenkins
Receipts
$44.8K
Disburse
$50.3K
Cash on hand
$-2,223.77
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$4.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $4.0K
- Jones Day · $2.5K
- Horn Law Group · $900
- Falcon Law Firm · $550
- Levinson Axelrod · $260
Individuals $4.0K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$250
Computers / electronics · $250
- Ibm · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Education$250
Education · $250
- Kean University · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Top contributors
JONES DAY$2.5K
HORN LAW GROUP$900
FALCON LAW FIRM$550
DAVID KIM$350
LEVINSON AXELROD$260
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$132.8K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$132.8K · 100%
Top spender
SUPPORT OUR FIREFIG…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUPPORT OUR FIREFIGHTERS AND PARAMEDICS PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $69.3K | 52% | for Chris Smith |
| AUTISM HEAR US NOW PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $46.8K | 35% | for Chris Smith |
| NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $16.7K | 13% | for Chris Smith |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- Cook Political Report · Mar 20
- Decision Desk HQ · Oct 6
- Elections Daily · Sep 6
- Inside Elections · Sep 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 25
CNalysis
Safe RCook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ
Safe RElections Daily
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-09
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks