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Races · house · 2024 · New Jersey
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Herb Conaway vs Shirley Maia-Cusick

← New Jersey houseNew Jersey house →
Safe DD +17.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Conaway (D)
1% Maia-Cusick (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +17.3 · 80% CI D+5.3 → D+29.3
Actual result D+8.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+5) suggests Lean D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+17.3 with an 80% CI ranging from D+5.3 (10th pctile) to D+29.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +17.3
80% CI: D +5.3 → D +29.3 · win prob 99%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+8.5
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DHerb Conaway0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RShirley Maia-Cusick0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-11
Herb ConawayH4NJ03080 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.3M
Cash on hand
$37.4K
Debts
$23.6K
Top industries
Govt employees$10.4K
Top contributors
NEUROSURGEONS OF NEW JERSEY$13.2K
RAMAS CONTRACTORS, LLC$13.2K
ASTERA$12.4K
ALLIED DIGESTIVE HEALTH$10.9K
STATE OF NEW JERSEY$10.4K
Shirley Maia-CusickOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$408.6K
Disburse
$408.6K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
NEXTGEN MANAGEMENT LLC$3.3K
ALLIED PAINTING INC.$2.1K
LUXURYDECORATIONNJ$1.6K
INFINITE COMFORT LLC$1.6K
HOLISTIC HEALTH SERVICES LLC$1.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$712.6K
D side
$687.0K · 96%
R side
$25.5K · 4%
Top spender
WITH HONOR FUND II,…
For / against split
For Conaway $687.0K
For Mohan $25.5K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WITH HONOR FUND II, INC.D$229.5K32%for Herb Conaway
VOTEVETSD$227.6K32%for Herb Conaway
314 ACTION FUNDD$170.0K24%for Herb Conaway
WORKING NEW JERSEYD$46.4K7%for Herb Conaway
JUST GOOD GOVERNMENT PACD$9.2K1%for Herb Conaway

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Likely D1
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 15
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Mar 20
Decision Desk HQ
Likely D
Oct 6
Elections Daily
Safe D
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Safe D
Sep 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jun 4

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-11
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks