Races · house · 2024 · NJ
house · open seat
Donald Payne Jr. vs Carmen Bucco
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Safe D
safe-d
Endorsements
Source · Wikipedia · 32 total Carmen Bucco (R)
3 endorsements · source
Organizations / unions (3)
- Essex County — Republican Party [ 6 ]
- Hudson County — Republican Party [ 6 ]
- Union County — Republican Party [ 6 ]
Donald Payne Jr. (D)
29 endorsements · source
Elected officials (16)
- Barbara McCann Stamato — state assemblywoman from the 31st district (2024–present) [ 27 ]
- Cory Booker — U.S. senator from New Jersey (2013–present) [ 14 ]
- Eliana Pintor Marin — state assemblywoman from the 29th district (2013–present) [ 19 ]
- Jamie Raskin — U.S. representative from Maryland's 8th congressional district (2017–present) [ 15 ]
- Joseph Cryan — state senator from the 20th district (2018–present) and Union Township Democratic municipal chair [ 18 ]
- Mark Pocan — U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district (2013–present) [ 15 ]
- Nicholas Scutari — president of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 22nd district (2004–present) and chair of the Union County Democratic Party [ 13 ]
- Phil Murphy — Governor of New Jersey (2018–present) [ 16 ]
- Pramila Jayapal — U.S. representative from Washington's 7th congressional district (2017–present) [ 15 ]
- Ras Baraka — mayor of Newark (2014–present) [ 11 ]
- Renee Burgess — state senator from the 28th district (2022–present) [ 17 ]
- Shanique Speight — state assemblywoman from the 29th district (2018–present) [ 19 ]
- Steven Fulop — mayor of Jersey City (2013–present) [ 29 ]
- Teresa Ruiz — Majority Leader of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 29th district (2008–present) [ 19 ]
- William D. Payne — former state assemblyman from the 29th district (1998–2008) [ 20 ]
- William Sampson — state assemblyman from the 31st district (2022–present) [ 27 ]
Organizations / unions (4)
- Hudson County — Democratic Party [ 30 ]
- Hudson County Executive — y Executive (2024–present) and chair of the Hudson County Democratic Party [ 28 ]
- LeRoy Jones — chair of the New Jersey Democratic Party (2021–present) and the Essex County Democratic Party [ 21 ]
- Union County — Democratic Party [ 13 ]
Other (9)
- 40 — 50%
- 50 — 60%
- Cranford — ic municipal chairs in Cranford , Garwood , Irvington , Kenilworth , and Roselle Park [ 13 ] [ 17 ]
- Essex County — ty commissioners [ 22 ]
- Hillside — Salters, Hillside Democratic municipal chair [ 13 ]
- Joseph DiVincenzo Jr. — Essex County Executive (2003–present) [ 21 ]
- Reginald Atkins — state assemblymember from the 20th district (2022–present) and Roselle Democratic municipal chair [ 13 ]
- SEIU — New Jersey [ a ] [ 25 ] [ 26 ]
- [ 21 ] — r mayors [ 21 ] [ 23 ] [ 13 ] [ 24 ]
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-09Total IE spending
$3K
For candidates
$3K
Against candidates
$0
Latest filing: 10/9/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Carmen Bucco (R)
$3K for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$21K
Total spent
$21K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $3K for NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PAC PAC
Donald Payne Jr. (D)
$10 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$281
Total raised (cycle)
$441K
Total spent
$479K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $10 for SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION Super PAC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Safe D via pvi