Races · house · 2024 · New Jersey
house · open seat
Donald Payne Jr. vs Carmen Bucco
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+27) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+61.7 with an 80% CI ranging from D+49.7 (10th pctile) to D+73.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +61.7
80% CI: D +49.7 → D +73.7 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | LaMonica McIver +52.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 29 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet26
3
Endorsements tracked
Donald Payne Jr.26 · 90%
Carmen Bucco3 · 10%
Total29
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DDonald Payne Jr.26 endorsers
Most notable · Teresa Ruiz · Majority Leader of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 29th district (2008–present)
Elected officials16
Federal 5State 8Local 2
Elected officials · 16
- Teresa Ruiz · Majority Leader of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 29th district (2008–present)
- Nicholas Scutari · president of the New Jersey Senate (2022–present) from the 22nd district (2004–present) and chair of the Union County Democratic Party
- Phil Murphy · Governor of New Jersey (2018–present)
- Cory Booker · U.S. senator from New Jersey (2013–present)
- Joseph Cryan · state senator from the 20th district (2018–present) and Union Township Democratic municipal chair
- Renee Burgess · state senator from the 28th district (2022–present)
- Barbara McCann Stamato · state assemblywoman from the 31st district (2024–present)
- Eliana Pintor Marin · state assemblywoman from the 29th district (2013–present)
- Jamie Raskin · U.S. representative from Maryland's 8th congressional district (2017–present)
- Mark Pocan · U.S. representative from Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district (2013–present)
- Pramila Jayapal · U.S. representative from Washington's 7th congressional district (2017–present)
- Ras Baraka · mayor of Newark (2014–present)
- Shanique Speight · state assemblywoman from the 29th district (2018–present)
- Steven Fulop · mayor of Jersey City (2013–present)
- William D. Payne · former state assemblyman from the 29th district (1998–2008)
- William Sampson · state assemblyman from the 31st district (2022–present)
Other6
Other · 6
- Cranford · ic municipal chairs in Cranford, Garwood, Irvington, Kenilworth, and Roselle Park
- Essex County · ty commissioners
- Hillside · Salters, Hillside Democratic municipal chair
- Joseph DiVincenzo Jr. · Essex County Executive (2003–present)
- Reginald Atkins · state assemblymember from the 20th district (2022–present) and Roselle Democratic municipal chair
- SEIU · New Jersey
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Hudson County Executive · y Executive (2024–present) and chair of the Hudson County Democratic Party
- LeRoy Jones · chair of the New Jersey Democratic Party (2021–present) and the Essex County Democratic Party
- Hudson County · Democratic Party
- Union County · Democratic Party
RCarmen Bucco3 endorsers
Most notable · Essex County · Republican Party
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Essex County · Republican Party
- Hudson County · Republican Party
- Union County · Republican Party
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-09Carmen BuccoH4NJ10135 ↗
Receipts
$20.8K
Disburse
$20.8K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Commercial banks$500
Commercial banks · $500
- US Bank · $500
Individuals $500 · PACs $0
Real estate$250
Real estate · $250
- Reited · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Pharma / health products$250
Pharma / health products · $250
- Novartis · $250
Individuals $250 · PACs $0
Top contributors
BERGEN ENGINEERING CO.$2.5K
US BANK$500
MAXIM GROUP$500
STERLING SECURITY$500
MURRAY-NOLAN BERUTTI LLC$479.7
Donald Payne Jr.H2NJ10154 ↗
Receipts
$440.6K
Disburse
$479.4K
Cash on hand
$280.76
Debts
$0
Top industries
Insurance$6.6K
Insurance · $6.6K
- Fairview Insurance · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$5.8K
Electric utilities · $5.8K
- Lb Electric Company · $5.8K
Individuals $5.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
FAIRVIEW INSURANCE$6.6K
PSEG$6.2K
3LLC$6.2K
LB ELECTRIC COMPANY$5.8K
MULLER BOHLIN ASSOCIATES$5.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$3.4K
D side
$10 · 0%
R side
$3.3K · 100%
Top spender
NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW JERSEY RIGHT TO LIFE COMMITTEE FEDERAL PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $3.3K | 100% | for Carmen Bucco |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Donald Payne Jr. |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D6
Safe D · 6 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 15
- Cook Political Report · Mar 20
- Decision Desk HQ · Oct 6
- Elections Daily · Sep 6
- Inside Elections · Sep 14
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Sep 25
CNalysis
Safe DCook Political Report
Safe DDecision Desk HQ
Safe DElections Daily
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-09
Endorsements29 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks