Races · house · 2024 · New Hampshire

house · open seat

Colin Van Ostern vs Vikram Mansharamani

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Likely DD +9.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
95% Ostern (D)
5% Mansharamani (R)
Win probability
Colin Van Ostern95% (D)
Vikram Mansharamani5% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +9.9
80% CIR+2.1 → D+21.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +9.9 · 80% CI R+2.1 → D+21.9
Actual result D+5.9 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 95% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.9 with an 80% CI ranging from R+2.1 (10th pctile) to D+21.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 95% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +9.9

80% CI: R +2.1 → D +21.9 · win prob 95%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+5.9
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DColin Van Ostern0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RVikram Mansharamani0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-24

Colin Van OsternH4NH02332 ↗

Receipts

$1.6M

Disburse

$1.6M

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Education$11.5K

Top contributors

ALUMNI VENTURES$14.1K

DARTMOUTH COLLEGE$11.5K

ACCENTURE$7.1K

ALUMNI VENTURES GROUP$6.6K

ODYSSEY MANAGEMENT SERVICES$6.6K

Vikram MansharamaniH4NH02373 ↗

Receipts

$539.9K

Disburse

$491.1K

Cash on hand

$59.4K

Debts

$243.4K

Top industries

Insurance$6.6K

Top contributors

TUSCAN BRANDS$13.3K

TA ASSOCIATES$13.2K

PAYWARD OPERATIONS$9.9K

ENFI, INC$9.9K

PLAID LLC$9.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$562.2K

D side

$205.7K · 37%

R side

$356.5K · 63%

Top spender

GRANITE STATE LEADE…

For / against split

For Ostern $205.7K

For Mansharamani $356.5K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
GRANITE STATE LEADERSHIP FUND	R	$338.9K	60%	for Vikram Mansharamani
NEW DEMOCRAT MAJORITY	D	$205.7K	37%	for Colin Van Ostern
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	R	$17.6K	3%	for Vikram Mansharamani

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D2

Likely D3

CNalysis

Likely D

Aug 17

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Oct 31

Elections Daily

Likely D

Sep 6

Inside Elections

Safe D

Sep 11

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Oct 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-24

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks