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Races · house · 2024 · New Hampshire
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Chris Pappas vs Chris Bright

← Nebraska houseNew Hampshire house →
Likely DD +8.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
93% Pappas (D)
7% Bright (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +8.7 · 80% CI R+3.3 → D+20.7
Actual result D+8.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 93% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.3 (10th pctile) to D+20.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.7
80% CI: R +3.3 → D +20.7 · win prob 93%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+8.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DChris Pappas0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RChris Bright0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-05
Chris PappasH8NH01210 ↗
Receipts
$4.1M
Disburse
$3.8M
Cash on hand
$407.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$13.2K
Education$12.2K
Top contributors
BAIN CAPITAL$13.2K
PURITAN BACKROOM$13.2K
HARVARD UNIVERSITY$12.2K
ART ADVISORS LLC$10.0K
WILLOUGHBY CAPITAL HOLDINGS$9.9K
Chris BrightOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$294.1K
Disburse
$292.2K
Cash on hand
$1.8K
Debts
$186.5K
Top industries
Commercial banks$6.6K
Air transport$3.1K
Pharma / health products$1.0K
Top contributors
CAPITAL ONE$6.6K
HEADWATER PRECISION$6.6K
RAYTHEON$3.1K
STRATTON MOUNTAIN$1.0K
MARIGOLD CAPITAL$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$2.0M
D side
$1.9M · 92%
R side
$160.9K · 8%
Top spender
EQUALITY PAC
For / against split
For Pappas $1.9M
For Prescott $160.9K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
EQUALITY PACD$1.5M74%for Chris Pappas
WORKING AMERICAD$190.7K9%for Chris Pappas
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$160.9K8%for Chris Pappas
FIREFIGHTERS COALITION OF AMERICA PACD$21.1K1%for Chris Pappas

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D5
CNalysis
Likely D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Oct 19
Elections Daily
Likely D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Likely D
Sep 11
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Oct 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks