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Races · house · 2024 · Nebraska
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Tony Vargas vs Don Bacon

← Nebraska houseNebraska house →
Likely RR +9.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
6% Vargas (D)
94% Bacon (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +9.3 · 80% CI R+21.3 → D+2.7
Actual result R+1.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 94% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.3 (10th pctile) to D+2.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +9.3
80% CI: R +21.3 → D +2.7 · win prob 6%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+1.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RDon Bacon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTony Vargas0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-15
Don BaconH6NE02125 ↗
Receipts
$6.4M
Disburse
$6.2M
Cash on hand
$198.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
TENASKA$33.9K
SANDHILLS PUBLISHING$19.8K
COX ENTERPRISES$18.0K
CALVERT SYSTEMS$17.2K
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PARTNERS$16.5K
Tony VargasH2NE02132 ↗
Receipts
$7.5M
Disburse
$7.5M
Cash on hand
$81.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$18.4K
Internet$14.9K
Education$12.2K
Top contributors
NO EMPLOYER$110.2K
UNMC$40.4K
STATE OF NEBRASKA$18.4K
CHI$16.6K
GOOGLE$14.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$63.5M
D side
$31.3M · 49%
R side
$32.1M · 51%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Vargas $1.6M
Against Bacon $29.7M
Against Vargas $22.2M
For Bacon $9.9M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$21.1M33%against Don Bacon
BIG RED LEADERSHIP PACR$17.8M28%against Tony Vargas
DCCCD$7.0M11%against Don Bacon
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$6.4M10%against Tony Vargas
NRCCR$3.7M6%against Tony Vargas
AMERICA PACR$2.5M4%for Don Bacon
YOUR COMMUNITY PACD$1.8M3%against Don Bacon

Editorial ratings · 8 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D6
Tilt D2
CNalysis
Tilt D
Oct 6
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 31
DDHQ
Lean D
Nov 3
The Economist
Lean D
Oct 9
Elections Daily
Lean D
Oct 9
FiveThirtyEight
Lean D
Oct 7
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 9
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Sep 29

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Rmodel
May 15, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-15
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks