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Races · house · 2024 · North Dakota
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house · open seat

Trygve Hammer vs Julie Fedorchak

← North Carolina houseNebraska house →
Safe RR +37.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Hammer (D)
99% Fedorchak (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +37.4 · 80% CI R+49.4 → R+25.4
Actual result R+38.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+18) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+37.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+49.4 (10th pctile) to R+25.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +37.4
80% CI: R +49.4 → R +25.4 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+38.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJulie Fedorchak0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DTrygve Hammer0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
I1,4550 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-21
Julie FedorchakH4ND00061 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$329.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Govt employees$46.8K
Crop production$13.2K
Top contributors
STATE OF NORTH DAKOTA$28.9K
STATE OF ND$17.9K
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$15.1K
THAT'S THE DREAM FARM$13.2K
BRANDT HOLDINGS$12.4K
Trygve HammerOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$10.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$5.5K
Internet$2.5K
Govt employees$2.0K
Top contributors
LARSON LAW FIRM$5.5K
GENERATION TUX$3.5K
RD OFFUTT CO$3.3K
TCS INDUSTRIES$3.3K
SCHOONER CAPITAL LLC$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.6M
D side
$929.0K · 57%
R side
$688.3K · 43%
Top spender
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION
For / against split
Against Fedorchak $929.0K
For Fedorchak $688.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIOND$691.4K43%against Julie Fedorchak
CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC.R$507.9K31%for Julie Fedorchak
PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEED$163.7K10%against Julie Fedorchak
WFW ACTION FUND, INC.R$89.8K6%for Julie Fedorchak
WIN IT BACK PACD$73.9K5%against Julie Fedorchak

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-21
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks