Races · house · 2024 · North Carolina

house · open seat

North Carolina house

← North Carolina house North Carolina house →

Lean RR +3.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
31% (D)
69% Castelli (R)
Win probability
Democrat31% (D)
Christian Castelli69% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +3.0
80% CIR+15.0 → D+9.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +3.0 · 80% CI R+15.0 → D+9.0
Actual result R+38.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 69% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+3.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+15.0 (10th pctile) to D+9.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 69% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +3.0

80% CI: R +15.0 → D +9.0 · win prob 31%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+38.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RChristian Castelli0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-04-23

Christian CastelliH2NC07161 ↗

Receipts

$843.1K

Disburse

$847.0K

Cash on hand

$2.8K

Debts

$570.0K

Top industries

Real estate$3.0K

Top contributors

CP CAPITAL$8.6K

GREEN FORD AUTO$3.3K

ENTRUST SERVICES DBA ROTO-ROOTER$3.3K

BHMI$3.3K

OHIO ORDINANCE WORKS, INC.$3.3K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$44.0K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$44.0K · 100%

Top spender

SPECIAL OPERATIONS …

For / against split

For Castelli $44.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA	R	$40.0K	91%	for Christian Castelli
FIRST FREEDOMS FOUNDATION PAC	R	$4.0K	9%	for Christian Castelli

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely R1

Safe R5

CNalysis

Safe R

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Nov 9

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

May 31

Elections Daily

Safe R

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Likely R

Oct 26

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Rmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-04-23

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks