Races · house · 2024 · North Carolina

house · open seat

Deborah Ross vs Alan Swain

← North Carolina house North Carolina house →

Safe DD +40.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Ross (D)
1% Swain (R)
Win probability
Deborah Ross99% (D)
Alan Swain1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +40.1
80% CID+28.1 → D+52.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +40.1 · 80% CI D+28.1 → D+52.1
Actual result D+34.7 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+17) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+40.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+28.1 (10th pctile) to D+52.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +40.1

80% CI: D +28.1 → D +52.1 · win prob 99%

R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+34.7
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DDeborah Ross0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RAlan Swain0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-05

Deborah RossH0NC02125 ↗

Receipts

$1.9M

Disburse

$1.7M

Cash on hand

$737.5K

Debts

Top industries

Education$15.1K

Lawyers / law firms$6.5K

Health professionals$6.3K

Top contributors

AFFORDABLE COMMUNITIES GROUP LLC$8.6K

DUKE UNIVERSITY$8.4K

DEBNAM PROPERTY MANAGEMENT LLC$6.6K

ALSOP LOUIE PARTNERS$6.6K

BROWN UNIVERSITY$6.6K

Alan SwainOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$33.2K

Disburse

$34.1K

Cash on hand

$1.1K

Debts

$28.4K

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

SSC$1.0K

NOT EMPLOYED - NO EMPLOYER$550

GOULD & GOODRICH$500

BRG ENERGY INC$500

EPC$500

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$11.7K

D side

$11.7K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

NCAAT IN ACTION

For / against split

For Ross $11.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
NCAAT IN ACTION	D	$10.5K	90%	for Deborah Ross
VOTE FOR EQUALITY	D	$1.1K	10%	for Deborah Ross
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION	D	$10	0%	for Deborah Ross

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 9

Decision Desk HQ

Safe D

May 31

Elections Daily

Safe D

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Safe D

Oct 26

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-05

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks