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Races · house · 2024 · North Carolina
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Pam Genan vs Tim Moore

← North Carolina houseNorth Dakota house →
Likely RR +11.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
3% Genan (D)
97% Moore (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +11.2 · 80% CI R+23.2 → D+0.8
Actual result R+16.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 97% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+8) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+11.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.2 (10th pctile) to D+0.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 97% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +11.2
80% CI: R +23.2 → D +0.8 · win prob 3%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+16.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DPam Genan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RTim Moore0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
GMichael Dublin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-05
Tim MooreH4NC14015 ↗
Receipts
$2.4M
Disburse
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$923.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$13.2K
Health professionals$11.0K
Top contributors
STOCKDALE INVESTMENT GROUP$23.1K
CENTENE$18.2K
NC GENERAL ASSEMBLY$17.0K
CHARLOTTE PIPE & FOUNDRY$14.5K
MILLER LAW GROUP, PLLC$13.2K
Pam GenanH4NC14023 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.2M
D side
$1.7K · 0%
R side
$1.2M · 100%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
For / against split
For Genan $1.7K
For Moore $1.2M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBSR$1.0M84%for Tim Moore
GOPAC ELECTION FUNDR$192.3K16%for Tim Moore
NEW NORTH CAROLINA PROJECTD$1.7K0%for Pam Genan

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 9
Decision Desk HQ
Safe R
May 31
Elections Daily
Safe R
Oct 25
Inside Elections
Likely R
Oct 26
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks