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Races · house · 2024 · North Carolina
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house · open seat

Alma Adams vs Addul Ali

← North Carolina houseNorth Carolina house →
Safe DD +48.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Adams (D)
1% Ali (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +48.5 · 80% CI D+36.5 → D+60.5
Actual result D+48.0 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+24) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+48.5 with an 80% CI ranging from D+36.5 (10th pctile) to D+60.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +48.5
80% CI: D +36.5 → D +60.5 · win prob 99%
R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+48.0
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DAlma Adams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAddul Ali0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-05
Alma AdamsH4NC12100 ↗
Receipts
$715.5K
Disburse
$685.5K
Cash on hand
$573.4K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$6.1K
Real estate$4.3K
Commercial banks$2.6K
Top contributors
C.W. WILLIAMS COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER$5.9K
FEDERAL STREET STRATEGIES$5.0K
MILLS CONSTRUCTION CO.$4.5K
KEATON BARROW REALTY$4.3K
ACNC$4.3K
Addul AliOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$48.9K
Disburse
$48.9K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Commercial banks$4.3K
Real estate$3.3K
Health professionals$3.0K
Top contributors
US BANK$3.6K
KNOCK REALTY$3.3K
ANVIL VENTURE GROUP$2.5K
INTERIM HEALTH CARE$2.0K
GRIFFIN STAFFORD HOSPITALITY$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.8K
D side
$1.8K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
NEW NORTH CAROLINA …
For / against split
For Adams $1.8K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NEW NORTH CAROLINA PROJECTD$1.4K78%for Alma Adams
MOMSRISING TOGETHERD$384.6122%for Alma Adams

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D6
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe D
Nov 9
Decision Desk HQ
Safe D
May 31
Elections Daily
Safe D
Oct 25
Inside Elections
Safe D
Oct 26
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-05
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks