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Races · house · 2024 · North Carolina
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Caleb Rudow vs Chuck Edwards

← North Carolina houseNorth Carolina house →
Safe RR +24.3 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Rudow (D)
99% Edwards (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +24.3 · 80% CI R+36.3 → R+12.3
Actual result R+13.6 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+36.3 (10th pctile) to R+12.3 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.3
80% CI: R +36.3 → R +12.3 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+13.6
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RChuck Edwards0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DCaleb Rudow0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-09-23
Chuck EdwardsH2NC14050 ↗
Receipts
$1.4M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
$108.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$6.6K
Top contributors
BRODIE GENERATIONAL CAPITAL PTRS$13.2K
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES$13.2K
UNINCORP INDIAN TRIBE$9.6K
CEO$6.6K
MIDLAND ENERGY INC$6.6K
Caleb RudowH4NC11102 ↗
Receipts
$646.0K
Disburse
$620.9K
Cash on hand
$25.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$3.5K
Internet$1.5K
Education$1.5K
Top contributors
MISSION HOSPITAL$3.5K
VCUHS$3.3K
DEUTSCH & GOTTSCHALK$3.3K
ROBERTS & STEVENS PA$3.0K
GILBERT SCHOLARSHIP, INC.$2.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$26.7K
D side
$10 · 0%
R side
$26.7K · 100%
Top spender
NATIONAL ASSOCIATIO…
For / against split
For Rudow $10
For Edwards $26.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$26.7K100%for Chuck Edwards
SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTIOND$100%for Caleb Rudow

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 9
Decision Desk HQ
Safe R
May 31
Elections Daily
Likely R
Oct 25
Inside Elections
Safe R
Oct 26
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Oct 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 15, 2026Likely Rmodel
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-09-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks