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Races · house · 2024 · Montana
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
house · open seat

Monica Tranel vs Mary Todd

← Mississippi houseMontana house →
Safe RR +19.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Tranel (D)
99% Todd (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +19.2 · 80% CI R+31.2 → R+7.2
Actual result R+7.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+19.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+31.2 (10th pctile) to R+7.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +19.2
80% CI: R +31.2 → R +7.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+7.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
RMary Todd0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMonica Tranel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LDennis Hayes0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-18
Monica TranelH2MT02092 ↗
Receipts
$6.2M
Disburse
$6.2M
Cash on hand
$30.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$17.3K
Health professionals$11.7K
Govt employees$9.3K
Lawyers / law firms$8.6K
Top contributors
NO EMPLOYER$18.3K
MOTLEY RICE$14.6K
BILLINGS CLINIC$11.7K
HABERFELD ASSOCIATES$9.9K
INSIGHT PARTNERS$9.9K
Dennis HayesH4MT01090 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Mary ToddOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$122.7K
Disburse
$122.7K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$83.1K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
OKTIV LABS$520.51
MODINE MANUFACTURING$520.51
GLACIER SUPPLY$500
JASON TAYLOR CONSTRUCTION LLC$500
PASSION FIRE$300

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$11.3M
D side
$10.3M · 92%
R side
$932.1K · 8%
Top spender
VPP
For / against split
For Tranel $808.4K
Against Zinke $9.5M
Against Tranel $600.0K
For Zinke $332.1K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
VPPL$859.5K8%for Dennis Hayes
YOUR COMMUNITY PACD$603.9K5%for Monica Tranel
MAKE MONTANA GREATR$450.0K4%against Monica Tranel
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$150.0K1%against Monica Tranel
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$112.0K1%for Monica Tranel
PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUNDD$63.8K1%for Monica Tranel
SAVE WESTERN CULTUREL$47.9K0%for Dennis Hayes

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean R5
CNalysis
Lean R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 3
Elections Daily
Lean R
Sep 6
Inside Elections
Lean R
Sep 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-18
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks