Races · house · 2024 · MO
house · open seat
Jon Karlen vs Remington Research
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Likely R
likely-r
Money in this race
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-11Total IE spending
$12.7M
For candidates
$7.0M
Against candidates
$5.7M
Latest filing: 11/11/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Source: FEC Schedule E
Kurt Schaefer (R)
$5.3M for ·
$2.0M against
Cash on hand
$17K
Total raised (cycle)
$331K
Total spent
$314K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
- $2.3M for NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC PAC
- $2.0M against WIN IT BACK PAC Super PAC
- $1.9M for NATIONAL INTEREST PAC Super PAC
- $561K for MISSOURI CONSERVATIVES FOR CONGRESS PAC Super PAC
- $406K for AMERICA LEADS ACTION INC. Super PAC
Bob Onder (R)
$1.7M for ·
$3.7M against
Cash on hand
$150K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.8M
Total spent
$1.6M
Debts
$900K
Source: FEC
- $1.2M for CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION Super PAC
- $1.1M against CONSERVATIVES FOR AMERICAN EXCELLENCE INC. Super PAC
- $1.0M against AMERICA LEADS ACTION INC. Super PAC
- $712K against NATIONAL INTEREST ACTION INC PAC
- $443K against MISSOURI CONSERVATIVES FOR CONGRESS PAC Super PAC
Justin Hicks (R)
$10K for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$32K
Total raised (cycle)
$162K
Total spent
$159K
Debts
$4K
Source: FEC
- $10K for AMERICANS FIRST Super PAC
Blaine Luetkemeyer (?)
$0 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$471K
Total raised (cycle)
$1.4M
Total spent
$2.7M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Mary Elizabeth Coleman (?)
$0 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$126K
Total spent
$126K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Bethany Mann (?)
$0 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$4K
Total raised (cycle)
$38K
Total spent
$48K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Jon Karlen (?)
$0 for ·
$0 against
Cash on hand
$4K
Total raised (cycle)
$165
Total spent
$0
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).
last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/6/2026 Likely R via pvi