Races · house · 2024 · Missouri

house · open seat

Wesley Bell vs Andrew Jones

← Minnesota house Missouri house →

Safe DD +61.1 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Bell (D)
1% Jones (R)
Win probability
Wesley Bell99% (D)
Andrew Jones1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +61.1
80% CID+49.1 → D+73.1
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +61.1 · 80% CI D+49.1 → D+73.1
Actual result D+57.5 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+29) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+61.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+49.1 (10th pctile) to D+73.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +61.1

80% CI: D +49.1 → D +73.1 · win prob 99%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+57.5
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

DWesley Bell0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

RAndrew Jones0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-23

Wesley BellH4MO01134 ↗

Receipts

$5.4M

Disburse

$5.0M

Cash on hand

$433.9K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$32.4K

Education$12.5K

Publishing / news$11.6K

Internet$10.9K

Top contributors

NOT$17.9K

FIVEW CAPITAL$13.2K

EMPLOYED$12.6K

WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY$12.5K

KIRKLAND & ELLIS$12.4K

Andrew JonesOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$16.1K

Disburse

$16.1K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

PETER AMORELLO CONST$50

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$6.8M

D side

$6.8M · 99%

R side

$38.1K · 1%

Top spender

UNITED DEMOCRACY PR…

For / against split

For Bell $6.8M

Against Bell $38.1K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP')	D	$3.1M	46%	for Wesley Bell
MAINSTREAM DEMOCRATS PAC	D	$2.6M	38%	for Wesley Bell
EMPOWERING BLACK AMERICANS PAC	D	$734.1K	11%	for Wesley Bell

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D6

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

Cook Political Report

Safe D

Feb 1

Decision Desk HQ

Safe D

May 31

Elections Daily

Safe D

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Safe D

Mar 9

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-23

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks