Races · house · 2024 · Minnesota

house · open seat

Minnesota house

← Minnesota house Minnesota house →

Safe DD +68.9 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% (D)
1% Al-Aqidi (R)
Win probability
Democrat99% (D)
Dalia Al-Aqidi1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +68.9
80% CID+56.9 → D+80.9
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +68.9 · 80% CI D+56.9 → D+80.9
Actual result Ilhan Omar +49.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+32) suggests Safe D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+68.9 with an 80% CI ranging from D+56.9 (10th pctile) to D+80.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +68.9

80% CI: D +56.9 → D +80.9 · win prob 99%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Ilhan Omar +49.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RDalia Al-Aqidi0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —

Dalia Al-AqidiOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$2.3M

Disburse

$2.2M

Cash on hand

$38.9K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

KROGER$5.8K

PENCOR$4.5K

WI$4.0K

TOWN OF OYSTER BAY$3.7K

POPE WALTERS$3.3K

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D5

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 15

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Feb 1

Elections Daily

Safe D

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Safe D

Mar 9

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Feb 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks