Races · house · 2024 · Minnesota

house · open seat

Minnesota house

← Minnesota house Minnesota house →

Likely DD +8.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
91% (D)
9% Teirab (R)
Win probability
Democrat91% (D)
Joe Teirab9% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +8.0
80% CIR+4.0 → D+20.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +8.0 · 80% CI R+4.0 → D+20.0
Actual result Angie Craig +13.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt D · model 91% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.0 (10th pctile) to D+20.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 91% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +8.0

80% CI: R +4.0 → D +20.0 · win prob 91%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	Angie Craig +13.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

RJoe Teirab0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-12

Joe TeirabH4MN02177 ↗

Receipts

$3.3M

Disburse

$3.3M

Cash on hand

$19.7K

Debts

Top industries

Education$16.0K

Oil & gas$6.6K

Top contributors

INVESTMENTS LIMITED$16.0K

CEO$13.4K

STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES$13.2K

RTP COMPANY$10.2K

ANDERSON TRUCKING SERVICE$9.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$1.4M

D side

$1.3M · 95%

R side

$70.0K · 5%

Top spender

HMP

For / against split

Against Teirab $1.3M

For Teirab $70.0K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
HMP	D	$1.3M	95%	against Joe Teirab
NORTH STAR VALUES	R	$70.0K	5%	for Joe Teirab

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D5

CNalysis

Likely D

Aug 17

The Cook Political Report

Likely D

Oct 31

Elections Daily

Likely D

Feb 4

Inside Elections

Likely D

Sep 25

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Likely D

Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-12

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks