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Races · house · 2024 · Michigan
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house · open seat

Clinton St. Mosley vs Lisa McClain

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Safe RR +40.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Mosley (D)
99% McClain (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +40.5 · 80% CI R+52.5 → R+28.5
Actual result R+37.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+40.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+52.5 (10th pctile) to R+28.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +40.5
80% CI: R +52.5 → R +28.5 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+37.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RLisa McClain0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DClinton St. Mosley0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-01
Lisa McClainH0MI10287 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$2.3M
Cash on hand
$606.9K
Debts
$550.0K
Top industries
Education$10.6K
Top contributors
CONFUSION CAPITAL$11.6K
TRIUMPH HIGHER EDUCATION$10.6K
HIGHLAND ENGINEERING$9.1K
W INVESTORS GROUP$6.6K
MACK MANAGEMENT & CONSTRUCTION$6.6K
Clinton St. MosleyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$113.5K
Disburse
$110.2K
Cash on hand
$3.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Crop production$1.0K
Computers / electronics$1.0K
Pharma / health products$500
Top contributors
GRAYWOOD DESIGNS$6.7K
AGRI VALLEY COMMUNICATIONS$6.6K
DOVER DEVELOPMENT$6.6K
STATE FARM$1.0K
IBM$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$4.3K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$4.3K · 100%
Top spender
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSO…
For / against split
For McClain $4.3K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$4.0K92%for Lisa McClain
RIGHT TO LIFE OF MICHIGAN VICTORY FUNDR$346.238%for Lisa McClain

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 15
Elections Daily
Safe R
Feb 4
Inside Elections
Safe R
Nov 15
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-01
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks