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Races · house · 2024 · Michigan
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Matthew Collier vs Anthony Hudson

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Lean DD +4.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
78% Collier (D)
22% Hudson (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +4.7 · 80% CI R+7.3 → D+16.7
Actual result D+6.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 78% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+1) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.3 (10th pctile) to D+16.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 78% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +4.7
80% CI: R +7.3 → D +16.7 · win prob 78%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+6.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DMatthew Collier0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAnthony Hudson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-06
Matthew CollierH4MI08242 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$6.6K
Top contributors
PPI$8.9K
TECHNICOLOR INC$6.7K
HARTFORD HEALTHCARE$6.6K
MYVA$6.6K
MEETING ST CAPITAL$6.6K
Anthony HudsonOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$141.0K
Disburse
$107.8K
Cash on hand
$31.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$210
Top contributors
RETIED$4.9K
STAY AT HOME MOM$3.2K
ST. JOSEPH REGIONAL MEDICAL CE$210

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$23.8M
D side
$22.5M · 95%
R side
$1.3M · 5%
Top spender
VOTEVETS
For / against split
For Collier $321.4K
Against Junge $22.2M
For Junge $1.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
VOTEVETSD$195.0K1%for Matthew Collier
PRINCIPLED VETERANS FUND (PV FUND)D$126.4K1%for Matthew Collier

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D2
Tilt D2
Tossup1
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Nov 15
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-06
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks