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Races · house · 2024 · Michigan
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house · open seat

Curtis Hertel Jr. vs Tom Barrett

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Lean DD +3.7 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
73% Jr. (D)
27% Barrett (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +3.7 · 80% CI R+8.3 → D+15.7
Actual result R+3.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 73% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+3.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+8.3 (10th pctile) to D+15.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 73% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +3.7
80% CI: R +8.3 → D +15.7 · win prob 73%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+3.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DCurtis Hertel Jr.0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RTom Barrett0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-02
Tom BarrettH2MI07123 ↗
Receipts
$5.1M
Disburse
$5.1M
Cash on hand
$22.1K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Insurance$13.2K
Top contributors
STARKEY HEARING$16.5K
ALTICOR$13.2K
EDW. C. LEVY CO$13.2K
HAWORTH, INC.$13.2K
IVONNE WELCH INSURANCE AGENCY$13.2K
Curtis Hertel Jr.H4MI07210 ↗
Receipts
$7.7M
Disburse
$7.7M
Cash on hand
$3.6K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$93.0K
Govt employees$47.9K
TV / movies / music$24.1K
Internet$13.7K
Top contributors
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY$58.6K
STATE OF MICHIGAN$47.9K
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN$34.4K
MSU$25.5K
BCBSM$24.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$64.7M
D side
$47.0M · 73%
R side
$17.7M · 27%
Top spender
HMP
For / against split
For Jr. $833.9K
Against Barrett $46.2M
Against Jr. $13.9M
For Barrett $3.7M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HMPD$37.5M58%against Tom Barrett
CONGRESSIONAL LEADERSHIP FUNDR$10.7M17%against Curtis Hertel Jr.
GIFFORDS PACD$7.6M12%against Tom Barrett
NRCCR$2.8M4%against Curtis Hertel Jr.
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTIONR$1.8M3%for Tom Barrett
AMERICA PACR$1.3M2%for Tom Barrett
SAVE WESTERN CULTURED$583.3K1%against Tom Barrett
LCV VICTORY FUNDD$422.2K1%for Curtis Hertel Jr.
CLEAN WAVED$145.9K0%for Curtis Hertel Jr.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt D1
Tilt R1
Lean R3
CNalysis
Tilt D
Nov 3
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Oct 31
Elections Daily
Lean R
Nov 3
Inside Elections
Tilt R
Oct 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-02
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks