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Races · house · 2024 · Michigan
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Joseph Alfonso vs Bill Huizenga

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Safe RR +23.8 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Alfonso (D)
99% Huizenga (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +23.8 · 80% CI R+35.8 → R+11.8
Actual result R+11.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+23.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+35.8 (10th pctile) to R+11.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +23.8
80% CI: R +35.8 → R +11.8 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+11.7
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RBill Huizenga0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJoseph Alfonso0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-21
Bill HuizengaH0MI02094 ↗
Receipts
$3.1M
Disburse
$3.1M
Cash on hand
$109.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$28.2K
Top contributors
ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ$19.8K
APOLLO MANAGEMENT$15.0K
EDW. C. LEVY CO.$13.3K
AMWAY$13.2K
BLACKSTONE$13.2K
Joseph AlfonsoOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$12.1K
Disburse
$13.2K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Pharma / health products$400
Internet$250
Top contributors
PFIZER$400
GOOGLE$250
REAL BROKER$250
FAMILY DOLLAR$88

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$253.0K
D side
$6.4K · 3%
R side
$246.6K · 97%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
For / against split
For Swartz $6.4K
For Huizenga $246.6K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBSR$214.7K85%for Bill Huizenga
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEER$27.3K11%for Bill Huizenga
NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUNDR$2.7K1%for Bill Huizenga
HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF)R$1.3K1%for Bill Huizenga
RIGHT TO LIFE OF MICHIGAN VICTORY FUNDR$547.20%for Bill Huizenga

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R1
Safe R4
CNalysis
Likely R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Safe R
Nov 15
Elections Daily
Safe R
Feb 4
Inside Elections
Safe R
Nov 15
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Nov 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-21
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks