Races · house · 2024 · Michigan
house · open seat
Hillary Scholten vs Paul Hudson
Where this race stands
VerifiedLean D · model 98% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+4) suggests Lean D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+11.9 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+23.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · lean-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +11.9
80% CI: R +0.1 → D +23.9 · win prob 98%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+9.9 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDHillary Scholten0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RPaul Hudson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-21Paul HudsonH4MI03268 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Health professionals$6.6K
Health professionals · $6.6K
- Autocam Medical · $6.6K
Individuals $6.6K · PACs $0
Top contributors
EAGLE ALLOY$13.2K
HAWORTH INC.$13.2K
HINES CORP$8.3K
GIGABRAIN CORPORATION$6.8K
VYNAMIC$6.6K
Hillary ScholtenH0MI03316 ↗
Receipts
$5.3M
Disburse
$4.9M
Cash on hand
$349.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$20.7K
Education · $20.7K
- University of Michigan · $10.4K
- Grand Valley State University · $10.3K
Individuals $20.7K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$18.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $18.5K
- Varnum LLP · $18.5K
Individuals $18.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MILLER JOHNSON$49.5K
VARNUM LLP$18.5K
COREWELL HEALTH$14.7K
ALSOP LOUIE PARTNERS$12.5K
NYMAN TURKISH PC$11.6K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$1.5M
D side
$519.6K · 35%
R side
$965.2K · 65%
Top spender
WEST MICHIGAN FOR C…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WEST MICHIGAN FOR CHANGE super pac · boosts R
| R | $964.9K | 65% | for Paul Hudson |
| FOR OUR FUTURE super pac · boosts D
| D | $301.7K | 20% | for Hillary Scholten |
| HMP super pac · boosts D
| D | $170.0K | 11% | against Paul Hudson |
| WORKING AMERICA pac · boosts D
| D | $29.6K | 2% | for Hillary Scholten |
| SOMOS PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $6.4K | 0% | for Hillary Scholten |
| REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM FOR ALL FREEDOM FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.8K | 0% | for Hillary Scholten |
| CONCERNED CITIZEN super pac · boosts R
| R | $321.58 | 0% | for Paul Hudson |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D2
Safe D · 2 raters
- CNalysis · Jun 14
- Elections Daily · Feb 4
Likely D4
Likely D · 4 raters
- The Cook Political Report · May 23
- FiveThirtyEight · Oct 27
- Inside Elections · May 8
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 15
CNalysis
Safe DThe Cook Political Report
Likely DElections Daily
Safe DFiveThirtyEight
Likely DInside Elections
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-21
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks