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Races · house · 2024 · Michigan
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
house · open seat

Emily Busch vs John James

← Michigan houseMichigan house →
Safe RR +18.2 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Busch (D)
99% James (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +18.2 · 80% CI R+30.2 → R+6.2
Actual result R+6.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+3) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+18.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+30.2 (10th pctile) to R+6.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +18.2
80% CI: R +30.2 → R +6.2 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+6.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RJohn James0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DEmily Busch0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-19
John JamesOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$9.5M
Disburse
$9.6M
Cash on hand
$734.7K
Debts
$4.0K
Top industries
Securities & investment$13.2K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$66.2K
RDV CORPORATION$62.7K
ENTREPRENEUR$49.8K
ULINE$19.8K
LACKS ENTERPRISES$19.4K
Emily BuschOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$511.8K
Disburse
$497.6K
Cash on hand
$14.2K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$4.7K
Health professionals$3.3K
Top contributors
ALSCO INC.$7.6K
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN$4.7K
MUSIC BUSINESS ASSOCIATION$4.0K
NYU$3.8K
VAN WAGNER$3.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$19.4M
D side
$10.7M · 55%
R side
$8.7M · 45%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Marlinga $10.7M
Against Marlinga $8.7M

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Tilt R1
Lean R4
CNalysis
Tilt R
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Lean R
Nov 15
Elections Daily
Lean R
Feb 4
Inside Elections
Lean R
May 8
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R
Nov 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 15, 2026Safe Rmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-19
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks