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Races · house · 2024 · Maryland
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house · open seat

April McClain Delaney vs Neil Parrott

Likely DD +8.6 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
92% Delaney (D)
8% Parrott (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +8.6 · 80% CI R+3.4 → D+20.6
Actual result D+6.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 92% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.4 (10th pctile) to D+20.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 92% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.6
80% CI: R +3.4D +20.6 · win prob 92%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+6.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 68 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet
59Delaney · 87%
Parrott · 13%9
DApril McClain Delaney59 endorsers
Most notable · Nancy King · Majority Leader of the Maryland Senate (2020–present) from the 39th district (2007–present)
Other34
Organizations14
Elected officials10
Federal 2State 6Local 1
Newspapers1
RNeil Parrott9 endorsers
Most notable · Newt Gingrich · former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (1995–1999) from GA-06 (1979–1999)
Organizations3
Other3
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
Newspapers1
I8620 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-13
Neil ParrottH0MD06231 ↗
Receipts
$1.1M
Disburse
$1.1M
Cash on hand
$4.6K
Debts
$0
Electric utilities$13.2K
Govt employees$9.8K
Oil & gas$6.6K
Real estate$6.6K
SWORD'S MASONRY INC.$16.1K
HAGERSTOWN FIRST CHURCH OF GOD$16.1K
N. BERKLEY CO. UTILITIES$13.2K
VALLEY STORAGE$12.9K
POTOMAC EXCAVATING$9.9K
April McClain DelaneyH4MD06340 ↗
Receipts
$5.9M
Disburse
$5.9M
Cash on hand
$12.9K
Debts
$3.9M
Education$19.2K
Real estate$9.9K
Securities & investment$7.6K
TV / movies / music$7.0K
FORBRIGHT BANK$17.7K
MONUMENTAL SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT$13.2K
GOLDENTREE ASSET MANAGEMENT$13.2K
GALLATIN POINT CAPITAL$13.2K
GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY$10.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.3M
D side
$500.7K · 40%
R side
$750.4K · 60%
Top spender
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTION
For / against split
For Delaney $100.7K
Against Parrott $400.0K
Against Delaney $445.7K
For Parrott $304.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HOUSE FREEDOM ACTIONR$339.2K27%for Neil Parrott
DCCCD$250.0K20%against Neil Parrott
COMMON SENSE COMMON GROUND PACR$196.8K16%against April McClain Delaney
UNITY FIRST PACD$150.0K12%against Neil Parrott
COMMON SENSE MARYLANDR$85.6K7%against April McClain Delaney
NO VOTE LEFT BEHIND PACR$64.4K5%against April McClain Delaney
CHESAPEAKE CLIMATE ACTION NETWORK ACTION FUNDD$56.9K5%for April McClain Delaney
PATRIOTS FOR A BRIGHTER AMERICAR$35.2K3%for Neil Parrott
CLUB FOR GROWTH PACR$8.5K1%for Neil Parrott

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D1
Likely D1
Lean D3
CNalysis
Likely D
Nov 15
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Oct 31
Elections Daily
Safe D
Oct 4
Inside Elections
Lean D
Oct 30
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flaggednone
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-13
Endorsements68 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks