NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · Louisiana
</> Embed
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary·Republican primary
house · open seat

Gerald Boudreaux vs Garret Graves

← Louisiana houseMassachusetts house →
Safe RR +24.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Boudreaux (D)
99% Graves (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +24.4 · 80% CI R+36.5 → R+12.4
Actual result D+13.1 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+24.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+36.5 (10th pctile) to R+12.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +24.4
80% CI: R +36.5 → R +12.4 · win prob 1%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+13.1
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DGerald Boudreaux0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGarret Graves0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-01
Garret GravesH4LA06153 ↗
Receipts
$2.9M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$3.7M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$12.4K
Air transport$11.8K
Top contributors
BLACKSTONE$12.4K
MANSHIP STATIONS$12.2K
AMERICAN AIRLINES$11.8K
ISC CONSTRUCTORS, LLC$11.4K
THE PICARD GROUP$10.8K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$704.0K
D side
$600.8K · 85%
R side
$103.2K · 15%
Top spender
POLICE COALITION OF…
For / against split
For Fields $600.8K
For Graves $103.2K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
POLICE COALITION OF AMERICA PACR$103.2K15%for Garret Graves

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D4
Likely D1
CNalysis
Safe D
Jan 22
Cook Political Report
Safe D
Jan 22
Elections Daily
Safe D
Jan 22
Inside Elections
Likely D
Jan 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe D
Jan 21

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Safe Rmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tossupmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-01
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks