NonpartisanIndependent, data-first coverage of US elections — polls, forecasts, and prediction markets, refreshed daily.Updated daily.What's new ↗·Methodology·Send feedback
Races · house · 2024 · Louisiana
</> Embed
house · open seat

Mel Manuel vs Steve Scalise

← Kentucky houseLouisiana house →
Safe RR +47.0 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Manuel (D)
99% Scalise (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +47.0 · 80% CI R+59.0 → R+35.0
Actual result R+42.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+19) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+47.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+59.0 (10th pctile) to R+35.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +47.0
80% CI: R +59.0 → R +35.0 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultR+42.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
RSteve Scalise0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DMel Manuel0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-21
Steve ScaliseH0LA01087 ↗
Receipts
$14.7M
Disburse
$15.3M
Cash on hand
$4.1M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Oil & gas$48.3K
Securities & investment$17.1K
Top contributors
VALERO$48.3K
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS$29.5K
OCHSNER HEALTH$26.9K
S-3 GROUP$25.0K
FORTRESS INFORMATION SECURITY$24.0K
Mel ManuelOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$74.6K
Disburse
$74.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$1.0K
Computers / electronics$1.0K
Top contributors
PEABODY COLLGE$1.5K
NASA$1.3K
THE CHEEK LAW FIRM LLC$1.0K
APPLE TV +$1.0K
MORRIS BART$1.0K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$1.4K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$1.4K · 100%
Top spender
HUNTER ACTION FUND …
For / against split
For Scalise $1.4K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
HUNTER ACTION FUND (HAF)R$1.4K98%for Steve Scalise
KOCH, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (KOCHPAC)R$23.662%for Steve Scalise

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe R5
CNalysis
Safe R
Jan 22
Cook Political Report
Safe R
Jan 22
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jun 7
Inside Elections
Safe R
Jan 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Safe R
Jan 21

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-21
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks