Races · house · 2024 · Kentucky

house · open seat

Randy Cravens vs Andy Barr

← Kentucky house Louisiana house →

Safe RR +30.5 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Cravens (D)
99% Barr (R)
Win probability
Randy Cravens1% (D)
Andy Barr99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +30.5
80% CIR+42.5 → R+18.5
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +30.5 · 80% CI R+42.5 → R+18.5
Actual result R+26.0 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+7) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+30.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+42.5 (10th pctile) to R+18.5 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +30.5

80% CI: R +42.5 → R +18.5 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+26.0
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RAndy Barr0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DRandy Cravens0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-01

Andy BarrH0KY06104 ↗

Receipts

$5.0M

Disburse

$3.3M

Cash on hand

$3.7M

Debts

Top industries

Securities & investment$79.3K

Commercial banks$23.4K

Top contributors

BANC OF CALIFORNIA$60.1K

APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$32.2K

BLACKSTONE$28.9K

WELLS FARGO$23.4K

ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ$19.8K

Randy CravensOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$31.7K

Disburse

$20.7K

Cash on hand

$14.2K

Debts

Top industries

Lawyers / law firms$2.4K

Education$1.5K

Crop production$500

Top contributors

CASSIDY LEVY KENT (USA) LLP$2.0K

UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY$1.5K

PALMARY CONSULTING$700

HELMSLEY FARM$500

ROCK CREEK TRADE LLP$400

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$213.4K

D side

$0 · 0%

R side

$213.4K · 100%

Top spender

DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS

For / against split

For Barr $213.4K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS	R	$213.4K	100%	for Andy Barr

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

CNalysis

Safe R

Dec 27

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Dec 29

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

May 31

Elections Daily

Safe R

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jan 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Nov 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jun 22, 2026Safe Rmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-01

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks