Races · house · 2024 · Kentucky

house · open seat

Erin Marshall vs James Comer

← Kansas house Kentucky house →

Safe RR +53.4 forecast· 0 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Marshall (D)
99% Comer (R)
Win probability
Erin Marshall1% (D)
James Comer99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +53.4
80% CIR+65.4 → R+41.4
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +53.4 · 80% CI R+65.4 → R+41.4
Actual result R+49.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Safe R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+23) suggests Safe R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+53.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+65.4 (10th pctile) to R+41.4 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · safe-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +53.4

80% CI: R +65.4 → R +41.4 · win prob 1%

R+100R+50TIEDD+50D+100

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+49.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RJames Comer0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DErin Marshall0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-08

Erin MarshallH4KY01081 ↗

Receipts

$248.5K

Disburse

$248.5K

Cash on hand

Debts

Top industries

Education$1.0K

Lawyers / law firms$1.0K

Insurance$1.0K

Top contributors

TCS INDUSTRIES$3.3K

JENNY HOLZER STUDIO$1.0K

BELLARMINE UNIVERSITY$1.0K

IMC$1.0K

DINSMORE & SHOHL LLP$1.0K

James ComerOWN COMMITTEE

Receipts

$7.7M

Disburse

$5.5M

Cash on hand

$3.2M

Debts

Top industries

TV / movies / music$52.3K

Computers / electronics$10.0K

Lawyers / law firms$8.8K

Health professionals$7.9K

Top contributors

NYCBS$52.3K

NEW YORK CANCER AND BLOOD SPECIALISTS$23.8K

SWIFT & STALEY$20.0K

CASSIDY & COMPANY$19.8K

ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT$13.2K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$4.7K

D side

$4.7K · 100%

R side

$0 · 0%

Top spender

INDIVISIBLE PROJECT…

For / against split

For Marshall $4.7K

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC.	D	$4.7K	100%	for Erin Marshall

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R6

CNalysis

Safe R

Dec 27

Cook Political Report

Safe R

Dec 29

Decision Desk HQ

Safe R

May 31

Elections Daily

Safe R

Oct 25

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jan 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Nov 15

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified0 / 0deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-08

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks